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LSUWin ProbabilityMIZZ
89%
CI: 81–97% home
Model v1.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors MIZZFavors LSU →
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−8.9%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+5.3%
Away Offense (runs/game)+1.8%
home elo−1.2%
away elo−1.2%
Game Conditions
Weather data unavailable (no venue coordinates)
Alex Box Stadium, Skip Bertman Field
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.6671.500
Pitching (ERA proxy)0.8781.112
14-Day Win Rate0.5710.500
Rest Days33
Snapshot taken: 2/19/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
MIZZ5.3 runs
p10: 2p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 8
LSU6.3 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.19 / 6.20
Missouri Tigers — Recent Form
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
5-5|6.7 R/G|6.4 RA/G
LSU Tigers — Recent Form
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
6-4|6.0 R/G|3.9 RA/G