Scheduled
Sunday, April 26
2:00 PM
LSU·Away
30%
Win Prob
Home·MSST
70%
Model CI: 62–78% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 9 bookmakers · Updated 1:03 PM
Moneyline
LSU+208
MSST-286
Run Line
MSST-2.5
(-109)
O/U
13
Model: 12.2
Model vs Market
MSST
Model70%
Market69%
Edge+0.4 pts
LSU
Model30%
Market31%
Edge-0.4 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors LSUFavors MSST →
home bb pct14g+4.1%
elo diff+3.8%
away ba14g−2.9%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+1.7%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−1.6%
home woba+1.3%
away k pct14g−1.1%
home k pct−1.0%
Game Conditions
🌡
77°F
Temperature
🧭
1 mph
Wind N
💧
69%
Humidity
🌧
5%
Precip Chance
Dudy Noble Field
Starkville, Mississippi
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.4821.603
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.0930.962
14-Day Win Rate0.8750.250
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/26/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
LSU5.9 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 7p90: 9
MSST6.3 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.89 / 6.22
LSU Tigers — Recent Form
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
2-8|5.0 R/G|7.6 RA/G
Mississippi State Bulldogs — Recent Form
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
7-3|6.3 R/G|4.4 RA/G