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Scheduled
Wednesday, March 11
02:00 PM
LOUWin ProbabilityMRSH
72%
28%
CI: 64–80% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors MRSHFavors LOU →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+6.2%
away ba14g−6.1%
away k pct−2.9%
home bb pct−2.5%
home ba14g+2.5%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−1.8%
Away Offense (runs/game)−1.8%
elo diff+1.7%
Game Conditions
🌡
69°F
Temperature
🧭
11 mph
Wind W
💧
86%
Humidity
🌧
35%
Precip Chance
Jim Patterson Stadium
Louisville, Kentucky
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.5941.052
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.1951.469
14-Day Win Rate0.8890.750
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
MRSH5.3 runs
p10: 2p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 8
LOU8.1 runs
p10: 5p25: 6med: 8p75: 10p90: 12
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.28 / 8.04
Marshall Thundering Herd — Recent Form
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
6-4|7.6 R/G|5.7 RA/G
Louisville Cardinals — Recent Form
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
8-2|10.0 R/G|5.4 RA/G