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UCFWin ProbabilityMIA
55%
45%
CI: 47–63% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 5 bookmakers · Updated 08:00 PM
Moneyline
MIA-147
UCF+112
Run Line
UCF+1.5
(-133)
O/U
12.5
Model: 13.3
Model vs Market
UCF
Model55%
Market44%
Edge+10.7 pts
MIA
Model45%
Market56%
Edge-10.7 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors MIAFavors UCF →
away ba14g−10.0%
home k pct−4.5%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−4.3%
home ba14g+3.0%
away k pct−2.4%
away woba+2.3%
home woba−2.3%
Home Starting Pitcher ERA+1.6%
Game Conditions
🌡
82°F
Temperature
🧭
8 mph
Wind S
💧
51%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
John Euliano Park
Orlando, Florida
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.3561.467
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.0391.109
14-Day Win Rate0.7140.429
Rest Days33
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
MIA6.3 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
UCF7.1 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.21 / 6.99
Miami Hurricanes — Recent Form
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
6-4|9.7 R/G|5.6 RA/G
UCF Knights — Recent Form
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
7-3|4.9 R/G|4.3 RA/G