Scheduled
Wednesday, April 22
6:00 PM
ND·Away
58%
Win Prob
Home·MSU
42%
Model CI: 34–50% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 7 bookmakers · Updated 1:01 PM
Moneyline
ND-187
MSU+143
Run Line
MSU+1.5
(-121)
O/U
12
Model: 11.9
Model vs Market
MSU
Model42%
Market39%
Edge+2.8 pts
ND
Model58%
Market61%
Edge-2.8 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors NDFavors MSU →
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−11.0%
home bb pct14g+2.0%
Home Offense (runs/game)+1.4%
away ba14g−1.2%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+1.2%
away woba−1.1%
Away 14-Day Win Rate−1.1%
away bb pct−0.9%
Game Conditions
🌡
66°F
Temperature
🧭
6 mph
Wind NE
💧
52%
Humidity
🌧
1%
Precip Chance
Jeff Ishbia Field at McLane Stadium
East Lansing, Michigan
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.2491.367
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.2881.093
14-Day Win Rate0.5000.250
Rest Days33
Snapshot taken: 4/22/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
ND6.0 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
MSU6.0 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.92 / 5.88
Notre Dame Fighting Irish — Recent Form
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
2-8|4.4 R/G|7.9 RA/G
Michigan State Spartans — Recent Form
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
4-6|7.1 R/G|6.8 RA/G