Scheduled
Saturday, April 25
3:00 PM
UVA·Away
55%
Win Prob
Home·PITT
45%
Model CI: 37–53% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 4 bookmakers · Updated 4:04 PM
Moneyline
UVA+783
PITT-3292
Run Line
PITT-6
(-42)
O/U
15.5
Model: 13.3
Model vs Market
PITT
Model45%
Market89%
Edge-44.5 pts
UVA
Model55%
Market11%
Edge+44.5 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors UVAFavors PITT →
away ba14g−7.7%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−7.3%
home bb pct14g+3.6%
away bb pct+2.3%
away k pct+1.8%
home woba+1.6%
away elo+1.5%
Away Starting Pitcher ERA−1.2%
Game Conditions
🌡
63°F
Temperature
🧭
3 mph
Wind NW
💧
93%
Humidity
🌧
64%
Precip Chance
Charles L. Cost Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.4151.735
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.4041.044
14-Day Win Rate0.5000.500
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/25/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
UVA7.2 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
PITT6.1 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 7.11 / 6.09
Virginia Cavaliers — Recent Form
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
5-5|6.2 R/G|5.2 RA/G
Pittsburgh Panthers — Recent Form
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
5-5|8.0 R/G|7.0 RA/G