Scheduled
Wednesday, April 22
8:30 PM
NMSU·Away
19%
Win Prob
Home·ASU
81%
Model CI: 73–89% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors NMSUFavors ASU →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+6.0%
away elo+4.5%
away bb pct+3.4%
home bb pct14g+2.3%
away k pct−2.3%
away ba14g−1.8%
Away Offense (runs/game)+1.7%
home elo−1.3%
Game Conditions
🌡
85°F
Temperature
🧭
8 mph
Wind W
💧
19%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Phoenix Municipal Stadium
Phoenix, Arizona
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.5391.256
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.3221.700
14-Day Win Rate0.5000.250
Rest Days43
Snapshot taken: 4/22/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
NMSU6.3 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
ASU8.9 runs
p10: 5p25: 7med: 9p75: 11p90: 13
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.29 / 8.90
New Mexico State Aggies — Recent Form
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
4-6|6.8 R/G|7.2 RA/G
Arizona State Sun Devils — Recent Form
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
6-4|9.2 R/G|7.8 RA/G