Scheduled
Sunday, April 26
4:00 PM
BAY·Away
36%
Win Prob
Home·ASU
64%
Model CI: 56–72% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 9 bookmakers · Updated 4:01 PM
Moneyline
BAY+195
ASU-266
Run Line
ASU-2.5
(-115)
O/U
16
Model: 14.2
Model vs Market
ASU
Model64%
Market68%
Edge-4.4 pts
BAY
Model36%
Market32%
Edge+4.4 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors BAYFavors ASU →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+9.3%
home bb pct14g+6.0%
away ba14g−3.0%
away k pct14g−1.9%
away k pct−1.3%
Home Starting Pitcher ERA+1.3%
home k pct−1.1%
home elo−1.1%
Game Conditions
🌡
75°F
Temperature
🧭
12 mph
Wind W
💧
26%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Phoenix Municipal Stadium
Phoenix, Arizona
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.5401.213
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.3181.304
14-Day Win Rate0.6250.375
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/26/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
BAY6.3 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
ASU7.9 runs
p10: 4p25: 6med: 8p75: 10p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.23 / 7.87
Baylor Bears — Recent Form
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
3-7|4.5 R/G|7.2 RA/G
Arizona State Sun Devils — Recent Form
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
6-4|8.4 R/G|7.1 RA/G