TCU·Away
52%
Win Prob
Home·BAY
48%
Model CI: 40–56% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 4 bookmakers · Updated 10:04 AM
Moneyline
TCU-143
BAY+110
Run Line
—
O/U
—
Model vs Market
BAY
Model48%
Market45%
Edge+3.4 pts
TCU
Model52%
Market55%
Edge-3.4 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors TCUFavors BAY →
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−6.0%
away woba+4.3%
away bb pct+4.2%
home elo+2.9%
away k pct−1.9%
away ba14g−1.8%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+1.7%
elo diff+1.4%
Game Conditions
🌡
57°F
Temperature
🧭
18 mph
Wind N
💧
74%
Humidity
🌧
16%
Precip Chance
Magnolia Field at Baylor Ballpark
Waco, Texas
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.2251.411
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.3011.039
14-Day Win Rate0.7140.500
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/18/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
TCU6.2 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
BAY5.8 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 7p90: 9
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.16 / 5.76
TCU Horned Frogs — Recent Form
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
5-5|6.0 R/G|4.9 RA/G
Baylor Bears — Recent Form
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
6-4|5.5 R/G|5.8 RA/G