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BYUWin ProbabilityCIN
44%
56%
CI: 36–52% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 8 bookmakers · Updated 02:03 PM
Moneyline
CIN-264
BYU+194
Run Line
—
O/U
—
Model vs Market
BYU
Model44%
Market32%
Edge+11.7 pts
CIN
Model56%
Market68%
Edge-11.7 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors CINFavors BYU →
away ba14g−14.8%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−12.0%
home ba14g+3.6%
home woba−2.8%
Home Starting Pitcher ERA−2.1%
away k pct−2.1%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+1.9%
Home 14-Day Win Rate−1.4%
Game Conditions
🌡
59°F
Temperature
🧭
3 mph
Wind S
💧
23%
Humidity
🌧
2%
Precip Chance
Miller Park - Larry H. Miller Field
Provo, Utah
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.3201.391
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.3641.314
14-Day Win Rate0.3330.889
Rest Days22
Snapshot taken: 3/12/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
CIN6.3 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
BYU6.3 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.27 / 6.24
Cincinnati Bearcats — Recent Form
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
9-1|8.5 R/G|4.2 RA/G
BYU Cougars — Recent Form
W
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
4-6|8.3 R/G|7.9 RA/G