CIN·Away
40%
Win Prob
Home·UCF
60%
Model CI: 52–68% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 4 bookmakers · Updated 10:04 AM
Moneyline
CIN+114
UCF-148
Run Line
—
O/U
—
Model vs Market
UCF
Model60%
Market56%
Edge+3.7 pts
CIN
Model40%
Market44%
Edge-3.8 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors CINFavors UCF →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+7.9%
away bb pct+7.0%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−4.4%
elo diff+3.9%
home k pct−1.9%
away ba14g−1.7%
home bb pct14g+1.7%
away woba+1.3%
Game Conditions
🌡
83°F
Temperature
🧭
6 mph
Wind W
💧
44%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
John Euliano Park
Orlando, Florida
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.3491.408
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.0331.309
14-Day Win Rate0.2860.571
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/19/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
CIN6.2 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
UCF7.3 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.13 / 7.22
Cincinnati Bearcats — Recent Form
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
5-5|7.1 R/G|6.2 RA/G
UCF Knights — Recent Form
W
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
4-6|4.4 R/G|4.2 RA/G