HOU·Away
25%
Win Prob
Home·TCU
75%
Model CI: 67–83% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 9 bookmakers · Updated 1:04 PM
Moneyline
HOU+231
TCU-324
Run Line
TCU-2.5
(-111)
O/U
10
Model: 12.5
Model vs Market
TCU
Model75%
Market72%
Edge+3.7 pts
HOU
Model25%
Market28%
Edge-3.7 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors HOUFavors TCU →
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−6.7%
away ba14g−5.3%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+3.4%
home woba−1.4%
away elo+1.1%
Home Offense (runs/game)+1.0%
away woba−0.8%
home ba14g+0.5%
Game Conditions
🌡
86°F
Temperature
🧭
12 mph
Wind SW
💧
60%
Humidity
🌧
1%
Precip Chance
Charlie and Marie Lupton Baseball Stadium at Williams-Reilly Field
Fort Worth, Texas
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.4111.271
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.0341.249
14-Day Win Rate0.7500.286
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/25/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
HOU5.4 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 8
TCU7.2 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.30 / 7.07
Houston Cougars — Recent Form
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
3-7|3.3 R/G|6.1 RA/G
TCU Horned Frogs — Recent Form
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
6-4|5.6 R/G|4.1 RA/G