HOU·Away
27%
Win Prob
Home·TCU
73%
Model CI: 65–81% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 7 bookmakers · Updated 1:03 PM
Moneyline
HOU+215
TCU-294
Run Line
TCU-2.5
(-116)
O/U
12
Model: 12.5
Model vs Market
TCU
Model73%
Market70%
Edge+2.4 pts
HOU
Model27%
Market30%
Edge-2.4 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors HOUFavors TCU →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+8.0%
home bb pct14g+4.0%
away ba14g−2.6%
home bb pct−1.9%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−1.6%
Away Offense (runs/game)−1.3%
Away Starting Pitcher ERA+1.1%
Home Starting Pitcher ERA+1.1%
Game Conditions
🌡
81°F
Temperature
🧭
11 mph
Wind S
💧
73%
Humidity
🌧
1%
Precip Chance
Charlie and Marie Lupton Baseball Stadium at Williams-Reilly Field
Fort Worth, Texas
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.4091.266
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.0321.247
14-Day Win Rate0.8570.286
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/26/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
HOU5.3 runs
p10: 2p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 8
TCU7.2 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.28 / 7.13
Houston Cougars — Recent Form
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
2-8|3.0 R/G|6.1 RA/G
TCU Horned Frogs — Recent Form
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
7-3|5.9 R/G|3.9 RA/G