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Scheduled
Wednesday, March 11
11:00 PM
KSUWin ProbabilitySDST
85%
CI: 77–93% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors SDSTFavors KSU →
away ba14g−4.5%
Away Offense (runs/game)−4.4%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+3.5%
home bb pct−2.9%
away bb pct+1.8%
home ba14g+1.8%
away k pct−1.6%
away woba+1.4%
Game Conditions
🌡
39°F
Temperature
🧭
18 mph
Wind N
💧
78%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Tointon Family Stadium
Manhattan, Kansas
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.3610.975
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.2231.570
14-Day Win Rate0.7500.333
Rest Days14
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
SDST5.4 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 8
KSU8.2 runs
p10: 5p25: 6med: 8p75: 10p90: 12
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.33 / 8.19
South Dakota State Jackrabbits — Recent Form
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
2-8|3.9 R/G|8.1 RA/G
Kansas State Wildcats — Recent Form
W
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
7-3|7.6 R/G|4.3 RA/G