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Scheduled
Wednesday, March 11
11:30 PM
TTUWin ProbabilityUTSA
49%
51%
CI: 41–57% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 9 bookmakers · Updated 08:00 PM
Moneyline
UTSA-131
TTU+56
Run Line
TTU+1.5
(-148)
O/U
16.5
Model: 15.1
Model vs Market
TTU
Model49%
Market47%
Edge+2.5 pts
UTSA
Model51%
Market53%
Edge-2.5 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors UTSAFavors TTU →
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−10.5%
away ba14g−9.9%
home k pct−3.8%
home ba14g+3.1%
away k pct−2.4%
Home Starting Pitcher ERA−2.2%
away woba+1.7%
elo diff+1.2%
Game Conditions
🌡
55°F
Temperature
🧭
26 mph
Wind NE
💧
37%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Dan Law Field at Rip Griffin Park
Lubbock, Texas
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.6131.451
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.2611.284
14-Day Win Rate0.7140.875
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
UTSA7.0 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
TTU8.1 runs
p10: 5p25: 6med: 8p75: 10p90: 12
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.99 / 8.05
UTSA Roadrunners — Recent Form
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
8-2|8.4 R/G|5.1 RA/G
Texas Tech Red Raiders — Recent Form
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
8-2|13.0 R/G|5.5 RA/G