Scheduled
Saturday, April 25
3:32 PM
MD·Away
58%
Win Prob
Home·MSU
42%
Model CI: 34–50% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 9 bookmakers · Updated 1:04 PM
Moneyline
MD-132
MSU+79
Run Line
MSU+1.5
(-157)
O/U
11
Model: 14.8
Model vs Market
MSU
Model42%
Market47%
Edge-4.3 pts
MD
Model58%
Market53%
Edge+4.3 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors MDFavors MSU →
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−9.5%
away ba14g−6.6%
home bb pct14g+4.2%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+3.3%
away elo+2.1%
Home 14-Day Win Rate+1.4%
away bb pct+1.4%
away woba−1.2%
Game Conditions
🌡
51°F
Temperature
🧭
9 mph
Wind N
💧
90%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Jeff Ishbia Field at McLane Stadium
East Lansing, Michigan
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.2491.677
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.2941.348
14-Day Win Rate0.3750.750
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/25/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
MD7.6 runs
p10: 4p25: 6med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
MSU7.1 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 7.57 / 7.07
Maryland Terrapins — Recent Form
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
7-3|11.4 R/G|7.2 RA/G
Michigan State Spartans — Recent Form
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
4-6|6.8 R/G|7.1 RA/G