Scheduled
Sunday, April 26
1:00 PM
MD·Away
51%
Win Prob
Home·MSU
49%
Model CI: 41–57% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 6 bookmakers · Updated 1:03 PM
Moneyline
MD-142
MSU+110
Run Line
MSU+1.5
(-150)
O/U
13
Model: 14.7
Model vs Market
MSU
Model49%
Market45%
Edge+4.3 pts
MD
Model51%
Market55%
Edge-4.3 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors MDFavors MSU →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+8.5%
home bb pct14g+5.6%
away ba14g−2.7%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−2.7%
away k pct−1.8%
Home Starting Pitcher ERA+1.8%
Home Offense (runs/game)+1.6%
Home 14-Day Win Rate−1.3%
Game Conditions
🌡
57°F
Temperature
🧭
9 mph
Wind E
💧
63%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Jeff Ishbia Field at McLane Stadium
East Lansing, Michigan
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.2541.674
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.2921.352
14-Day Win Rate0.5000.625
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/26/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
MD7.5 runs
p10: 4p25: 6med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
MSU7.2 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 7.41 / 7.13
Maryland Terrapins — Recent Form
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
6-4|10.3 R/G|8.2 RA/G
Michigan State Spartans — Recent Form
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
4-6|7.3 R/G|7.1 RA/G