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Scheduled
Wednesday, March 11
07:00 PM
EMUWin ProbabilityMSU
41%
59%
CI: 33–49% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors MSUFavors EMU →
away ba14g−9.1%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+5.8%
home woba−4.3%
home k pct−3.6%
away k pct−3.0%
home ba14g+2.9%
home elo+2.3%
away bb pct+1.2%
Game Conditions
🌡
64°F
Temperature
🧭
12 mph
Wind SW
💧
90%
Humidity
🌧
65%
Precip Chance
Oestrike Stadium
Ypsilanti, Michigan
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.1271.228
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.9361.289
14-Day Win Rate00.125
Rest Days83
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
MSU6.8 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 8p90: 10
EMU5.9 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 7p90: 9
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.80 / 5.77
Michigan State Spartans — Recent Form
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
1-9|2.1 R/G|5.4 RA/G
Eastern Michigan Eagles — Recent Form
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
2-8|4.7 R/G|9.1 RA/G