← Back to Today
Scheduled
Wednesday, March 11
11:05 PM
MINNWin ProbabilityGONZ
74%
26%
CI: 66–82% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 5 bookmakers · Updated 08:00 PM
Moneyline
GONZ+288
MINN-423
Run Line
MINN-3
(-117)
O/U
12.5
Model: 13.1
Model vs Market
MINN
Model74%
Market76%
Edge-2.2 pts
GONZ
Model26%
Market24%
Edge+2.2 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors GONZFavors MINN →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+6.6%
away ba14g−5.5%
home bb pct−2.7%
away elo−2.6%
away k pct−2.5%
home ba14g+2.4%
Away Starting Pitcher ERA+1.7%
away woba+1.7%
Game Conditions
🌡
35°F
Temperature
🧭
16 mph
Wind N
💧
57%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
U.S. Bank Stadium
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.2091.104
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.3211.431
14-Day Win Rate0.8000.286
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
GONZ5.8 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 7p90: 9
MINN7.3 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.77 / 7.28
Gonzaga Bulldogs — Recent Form
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
3-7|4.3 R/G|6.4 RA/G
Minnesota Golden Gophers — Recent Form
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
8-2|8.2 R/G|4.4 RA/G