Scheduled
Saturday, April 25
2:30 PM
USF·Away
35%
Win Prob
Home·ECU
65%
Model CI: 57–73% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 6 bookmakers · Updated 1:04 PM
Moneyline
USF+140
ECU-185
Run Line
ECU-1.5
(+104)
O/U
9.5
Model: 12.7
Model vs Market
ECU
Model65%
Market61%
Edge+4.2 pts
USF
Model35%
Market39%
Edge-4.2 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors USFFavors ECU →
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−6.8%
away ba14g−6.1%
home bb pct14g+2.3%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+2.2%
away k pct14g−1.1%
away elo+1.1%
home ba14g+0.5%
away woba−0.5%
Game Conditions
🌡
86°F
Temperature
🧭
8 mph
Wind SW
💧
28%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Lewis Field at Clark-LeClair Stadium
Greenville, North Carolina
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.4381.149
Pitching (ERA proxy)0.9461.175
14-Day Win Rate0.6250.500
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/25/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
USF5.3 runs
p10: 2p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 8
ECU7.3 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.25 / 7.29
South Florida Bulls — Recent Form
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
5-5|4.0 R/G|5.7 RA/G
East Carolina Pirates — Recent Form
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
6-4|6.9 R/G|5.7 RA/G