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Scheduled
Wednesday, March 11
09:00 PM
MEMWin ProbabilityUAPB
70%
30%
CI: 62–78% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors UAPBFavors MEM →
Away Offense (runs/game)−8.1%
away elo+6.2%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−6.0%
Home 14-Day Win Rate−5.4%
home woba−4.8%
away ba14g−4.1%
Home Offense (runs/game)+3.5%
home bb pct−2.9%
Game Conditions
🌡
70°F
Temperature
🧭
13 mph
Wind SW
💧
93%
Humidity
🌧
68%
Precip Chance
FedExPark Avron Fogelman Field
Memphis, Tennessee
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.0700.678
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.8202.367
14-Day Win Rate0.1250
Rest Days13
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
UAPB4.9 runs
p10: 2p25: 3med: 5p75: 6p90: 8
MEM7.8 runs
p10: 4p25: 6med: 8p75: 10p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 4.88 / 7.79
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — Recent Form
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
0-10|3.8 R/G|10.7 RA/G
Memphis Tigers — Recent Form
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
2-8|6.0 R/G|8.7 RA/G