MEM·Away
23%
Win Prob
Home·UAB
77%
Model CI: 69–85% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors MEMFavors UAB →
away elo+7.7%
away ba14g−6.0%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+4.9%
Home Offense (runs/game)+2.1%
away bb pct+2.0%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−1.7%
Away Offense (runs/game)+1.0%
home k pct−1.0%
Game Conditions
🌡
68°F
Temperature
🧭
3 mph
Wind SW
💧
81%
Humidity
🌧
8%
Precip Chance
Jerry D. Young Memorial Field
Birmingham, Alabama
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.1331.144
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.2921.706
14-Day Win Rate0.5000.625
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/25/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
MEM5.6 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 9
UAB7.0 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.60 / 6.96
Memphis Tigers — Recent Form
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
5-5|6.0 R/G|6.9 RA/G
UAB Blazers — Recent Form
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
5-5|5.7 R/G|5.4 RA/G