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OREWin ProbabilityXU
80%
20%
CI: 72–88% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 9 bookmakers · Updated 08:00 PM
Moneyline
XU+430
ORE-714
Run Line
ORE-4.5
(-126)
O/U
12.5
Model: 12.0
Model vs Market
ORE
Model80%
Market82%
Edge-1.9 pts
XU
Model20%
Market18%
Edge+1.9 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors XUFavors ORE →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+5.3%
away ba14g−4.0%
away k pct−2.3%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−2.0%
home ba14g+1.9%
away woba+1.7%
elo diff+1.0%
home k pct−0.9%
Game Conditions
🌡
47°F
Temperature
🧭
3 mph
Wind SW
💧
78%
Humidity
🌧
13%
Precip Chance
PK Park
Eugene, Oregon
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.4861.130
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.0061.462
14-Day Win Rate0.6250.300
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
XU4.7 runs
p10: 2p25: 3med: 5p75: 6p90: 8
ORE7.3 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 4.65 / 7.30
Xavier Musketeers — Recent Form
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
3-7|3.8 R/G|7.7 RA/G
Oregon Ducks — Recent Form
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
7-3|8.1 R/G|4.3 RA/G