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Scheduled
Wednesday, March 11
08:00 PM
GTWNWin ProbabilityPSU
61%
39%
CI: 53–69% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors PSUFavors GTWN →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+6.7%
away ba14g−6.6%
home woba−4.2%
home elo+3.0%
home ba14g+3.0%
away k pct−2.3%
home k pct−2.1%
Home Offense (runs/game)−1.5%
Game Conditions
🌡
81°F
Temperature
🧭
13 mph
Wind S
💧
40%
Humidity
🌧
6%
Precip Chance
Capital One Park
Tysons, Virginia
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.1831.367
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.5111.397
14-Day Win Rate0.6670.250
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
PSU6.4 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
GTWN6.6 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.38 / 6.55
Penn State Nittany Lions — Recent Form
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
2-8|4.9 R/G|8.5 RA/G
Georgetown Hoyas — Recent Form
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
7-3|8.0 R/G|5.3 RA/G