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USCWin ProbabilityUSD
80%
20%
CI: 72–88% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors USDFavors USC →
away ba14g−5.1%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+4.9%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−4.7%
home ba14g+2.5%
Away Starting Pitcher ERA+2.3%
Home Offense (runs/game)+2.2%
away woba+2.0%
away k pct−1.9%
Game Conditions
🌡
72°F
Temperature
🧭
2 mph
Wind SW
💧
51%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Dedeaux Field
Los Angeles, California
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.2471.272
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.0641.407
14-Day Win Rate10.143
Rest Days13
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
USD5.7 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 7p90: 9
USC7.7 runs
p10: 4p25: 6med: 8p75: 9p90: 11
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.61 / 7.65
San Diego Toreros — Recent Form
W
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
3-7|5.8 R/G|8.0 RA/G
USC Trojans — Recent Form
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
10-0|6.3 R/G|1.9 RA/G