Scheduled
Saturday, April 25
7:00 PM
UL·Away
46%
Win Prob
Home·ARST
54%
Model CI: 46–62% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 5 bookmakers · Updated 4:04 PM
Moneyline
UL+169
ARST-230
Run Line
ARST-1.5
(-112)
O/U
11
Model: 12.8
Model vs Market
ARST
Model54%
Market65%
Edge-11.3 pts
UL
Model46%
Market35%
Edge+11.3 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors ULFavors ARST →
away ba14g−6.5%
away bb pct+6.1%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−5.9%
away elo+4.9%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+4.0%
Temperature+3.1%
home bb pct14g+2.8%
away k pct+1.5%
Game Conditions
🌡
73°F
Temperature
🧭
7 mph
Wind E
💧
68%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Tomlinson Stadium–Kell Field
Jonesboro, Arkansas
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.1251.218
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.1251.230
14-Day Win Rate0.6250.714
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/25/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
UL6.1 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
ARST6.7 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 8p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.05 / 6.63
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns — Recent Form
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
5-5|6.4 R/G|6.6 RA/G
Arkansas State Red Wolves — Recent Form
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
L
6-4|7.0 R/G|4.3 RA/G