Scheduled
Sunday, April 26
2:00 PM
UL·Away
44%
Win Prob
Home·ARST
56%
Model CI: 48–64% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 5 bookmakers · Updated 1:03 PM
Moneyline
UL+197
ARST-271
Run Line
ARST-2.5
(-103)
O/U
12
Model: 11.6
Model vs Market
ARST
Model56%
Market68%
Edge-12.7 pts
UL
Model44%
Market32%
Edge+12.7 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors ULFavors ARST →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+8.2%
home bb pct14g+6.5%
away bb pct+3.7%
away woba+3.7%
away ba14g−2.5%
Wind Speed−2.3%
Home Offense (runs/game)+2.0%
home elo+1.8%
Game Conditions
🌡
80°F
Temperature
🧭
6 mph
Wind SE
💧
54%
Humidity
🌧
4%
Precip Chance
Tomlinson Stadium–Kell Field
Jonesboro, Arkansas
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.1231.225
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.1421.229
14-Day Win Rate0.6250.714
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/26/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
UL5.6 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 9
ARST6.0 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.49 / 5.95
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns — Recent Form
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
6-4|7.4 R/G|6.6 RA/G
Arkansas State Red Wolves — Recent Form
L
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
5-5|6.3 R/G|5.2 RA/G