UTSA·Away
56%
Win Prob
Home·TULN
44%
Model CI: 36–52% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 4 bookmakers · Updated 4:01 PM
Moneyline
UTSA+603
TULN-2033
Run Line
TULN-3
(-57)
O/U
20
Model: 13.0
Model vs Market
TULN
Model44%
Market86%
Edge-41.1 pts
UTSA
Model56%
Market14%
Edge+41.1 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors UTSAFavors TULN →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+6.5%
home bb pct14g+6.3%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−3.4%
away ba14g−2.9%
Home Starting Pitcher ERA+1.8%
away bb pct−1.8%
elo diff+0.9%
Temperature+0.8%
Game Conditions
🌡
70°F
Temperature
🧭
5 mph
Wind SE
💧
88%
Humidity
🌧
25%
Precip Chance
Green Field at Turchin Stadium
New Orleans, Louisiana
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.3231.476
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.3571.242
14-Day Win Rate0.3750.667
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/26/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
UTSA6.6 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
TULN6.4 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.59 / 6.37
UTSA Roadrunners — Recent Form
W
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
7-3|7.3 R/G|4.5 RA/G
Tulane Green Wave — Recent Form
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
4-6|5.7 R/G|6.2 RA/G