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Scheduled
Wednesday, March 11
11:30 PM
S ALAWin ProbabilitySELA
64%
36%
CI: 56–72% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 6 bookmakers · Updated 08:00 PM
Moneyline
SELA+149
S ALA-197
Run Line
S ALA-1.5
(-38)
O/U
12.5
Model: 13.4
Model vs Market
S ALA
Model64%
Market62%
Edge+1.6 pts
SELA
Model36%
Market38%
Edge-1.6 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors SELAFavors S ALA →
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+8.5%
away ba14g−6.5%
home woba−4.3%
home elo+3.6%
home ba14g+3.3%
home k pct−3.1%
away elo+3.0%
away k pct−2.4%
Game Conditions
🌡
76°F
Temperature
🧭
16 mph
Wind S
💧
80%
Humidity
🌧
2%
Precip Chance
Stanky Field
Mobile, Alabama
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.2621.248
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.3901.438
14-Day Win Rate0.6251
Rest Days37
Snapshot taken: 3/11/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
SELA6.4 runs
p10: 3p25: 5med: 6p75: 8p90: 10
S ALA7.0 runs
p10: 4p25: 5med: 7p75: 9p90: 10
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.41 / 6.96
SE Louisiana Lions — Recent Form
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
3-7|7.3 R/G|7.6 RA/G
South Alabama Jaguars — Recent Form
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
6-4|7.0 R/G|5.6 RA/G