Scheduled
Sunday, April 26
2:00 PM
USM·Away
57%
Win Prob
Home·S ALA
43%
Model CI: 35–51% home
Model v2.1.0
Betting Line
Consensus of 3 bookmakers · Updated 4:01 PM
Moneyline
USM+125
S ALA-298
Run Line
S ALA0
(+14)
O/U
7.5
Model: 11.7
Model vs Market
S ALA
Model43%
Market63%
Edge-19.7 pts
USM
Model57%
Market37%
Edge+19.7 pts
Positive edge = model likes that team vs the market
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors USMFavors S ALA →
home bb pct14g+7.3%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−4.1%
away ba14g−2.9%
Home Offense (runs/game)+1.9%
Home Starting Pitcher ERA+1.7%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+1.5%
away bb pct−1.4%
home elo+1.3%
Game Conditions
🌡
77°F
Temperature
🧭
11 mph
Wind W
💧
81%
Humidity
🌧
5%
Precip Chance
Stanky Field
Mobile, Alabama
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)1.2471.296
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.2660.925
14-Day Win Rate0.6250.750
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/26/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
USM6.1 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
S ALA5.5 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 9
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.07 / 5.53
Southern Miss Golden Eagles — Recent Form
W
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
7-3|6.4 R/G|4.8 RA/G
South Alabama Jaguars — Recent Form
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
6-4|6.2 R/G|5.6 RA/G