Scheduled
Saturday, April 25
9:00 PM
LBSU·Away
39%
Win Prob
Home·UCD
61%
Model CI: 53–69% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors LBSUFavors UCD →
away ba14g−6.6%
away elo+5.9%
Away Pitching (ERA proxy)+4.2%
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−4.1%
home elo+3.2%
Home Offense (runs/game)+2.9%
away k pct14g−1.7%
home bb pct14g+1.3%
Game Conditions
🌡
61°F
Temperature
🧭
13 mph
Wind SW
💧
67%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Phil Swimley Field at Dobbins Stadium
Davis, California
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)0.8970.928
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.2791.340
14-Day Win Rate0.4290.333
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/25/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
LBSU5.5 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 5p75: 7p90: 9
UCD6.0 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 5.38 / 6.02
Long Beach State Beach — Recent Form
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
W
3-7|2.9 R/G|5.3 RA/G
UC Davis Aggies — Recent Form
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
5-5|4.6 R/G|5.1 RA/G