Scheduled
Saturday, April 25
2:00 PM
UNCW·Away
56%
Win Prob
Home·ELON
44%
Model CI: 36–52% home
Model v2.1.0
Top Prediction Drivers
← Favors UNCWFavors ELON →
Home Pitching (ERA proxy)−9.4%
away ba14g−6.6%
away elo+4.3%
elo diff−2.8%
away bb pct−2.1%
home bb pct14g+1.8%
home woba+1.1%
home elo−1.1%
Game Conditions
🌡
82°F
Temperature
🧭
2 mph
Wind S
💧
34%
Humidity
🌧
0%
Precip Chance
Walter C. Latham Park
Elon, North Carolina
Park factor: 1.00(estimated)
Pre-Game Feature Snapshot
FeatureHomeAway
Offense (wOBA proxy)0.9971.122
Pitching (ERA proxy)1.3671.181
14-Day Win Rate0.5000.375
Rest Days11
Snapshot taken: 4/25/2026
Score Projection
Monte Carlo simulation
UNCW6.1 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
ELON6.0 runs
p10: 3p25: 4med: 6p75: 8p90: 9
p10–p90 p25–p75 median mean10,000 simulations · λ 6.13 / 5.98
UNC Wilmington Seahawks — Recent Form
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
4-6|5.1 R/G|6.3 RA/G
Elon Phoenix — Recent Form
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
4-6|6.9 R/G|8.8 RA/G