Bet History
How accurate is the model on games where it saw ≥5% edge?
Expected vs Actual Wins
29/ 43.4 exp
−14.4 vs model expectation
29W–47L across 76 graded bets
Model vs Market (Brier Score)
0.203model
Market: 0.159(lower = better)
Market beats model by 0.044 pts
Graded Bets
76
games with ≥5% model edge
Avg model prob: 57% for best side
By Edge Tier
— Exp = model's expected wins for this tier| Tier | Bets | Exp Wins | Actual | vs Expected | Model Brier | Mkt Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5–10% | 29 | 17.2 | 14 | −3.2 | 0.166 | 0.155 |
| +10–15% | 17 | 10.2 | 8 | −2.2 | 0.182 | 0.166 |
| +15%+ | 30 | 16.1 | 7 | −9.1 | 0.251 | 0.160 |
Recent Bets
W↑ = won when model said <50% · L↓ = lost when model said ≥50%
| Date | Matchup | Side | Model% | Market% | Edge | Line | Result | vs Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 |  @ BC @ CONN | CONN(home) | 48% | 10% | +37% | +826 | L | −0.48 |
| Mar 10 |  @ WICH @ KSU | KSU(home) | 72% | 65% | +7% | -227 | W | +0.28 |
| Mar 10 |  @ FRES @ CP | CP(home) | 67% | 59% | +8% | -171 | W | +0.33 |
| Mar 10 |  @ TEX @ TXST | TXST(home) | 38% | 21% | +17% | +338 | L | −0.38 |
| Mar 10 |  @ CLT @ CAM | CAM(home) | 55% | 38% | +17% | +148 | L↓ | −0.55 |
| Mar 10 |  @ DBU @ OKST | OKST(home) | 70% | 64% | +5% | -221 | W | +0.30 |
| Mar 10 |  @ DUKE @ HP | DUKE(away) | 73% | 67% | +6% | -246 | L↓ | −0.73 |
| Mar 10 |  @ ARIZ @ ASU | ARIZ(away) | 46% | 34% | +12% | +178 | L | −0.46 |
| Mar 10 |  @ UTSA @ TTU | TTU(home) | 50% | 41% | +8% | +127 | L | −0.50 |
| Mar 10 |  @ WRST @ IU | IU(home) | 64% | 58% | +6% | -161 | W | +0.36 |
| Mar 10 |  @ WAKE @ CCU | CCU(home) | 60% | 38% | +23% | +150 | W | +0.40 |
| Mar 9 |  @ XU @ ORST | ORST(home) | 82% | 74% | +9% | -368 | W | +0.18 |
| Mar 8 |  @ USD @ CAL | USD(away) | 34% | 26% | +8% | +257 | L | −0.34 |
| Mar 8 | @ CP @ HAW | CP(away) | 50% | 44% | +6% | +114 | W | +0.50 |
| Mar 8 |  @ LBSU @ UCSB | UCSB(home) | 90% | 80% | +10% | -585 | W | +0.10 |
| Mar 8 | @XU @ ORST | ORST(home) | 85% | 73% | +11% | -357 | W | +0.15 |
| Mar 8 |  @ LT @ S ALA | S ALA(home) | 51% | 45% | +5% | +74 | L↓ | −0.51 |
| Mar 8 |  @LMU @ ASU | LMU(away) | 24% | 15% | +8% | +517 | L | −0.24 |
| Mar 8 |  @ECU @ CCU | CCU(home) | 68% | 59% | +9% | -172 | L↓ | −0.68 |
| Mar 8 |  @ UCLA @ OSU | OSU(home) | 31% | 6% | +25% | +1550 | L | −0.31 |
| Mar 8 | @FRES @ ARIZ | ARIZ(home) | 72% | 62% | +10% | -193 | W | +0.28 |
| Mar 8 |  @ ORE @ PUR | PUR(home) | 45% | 9% | +36% | +933 | L | −0.45 |
| Mar 8 |  @ND @ DUKE | DUKE(home) | 61% | 46% | +14% | +36 | L↓ | −0.61 |
| Mar 8 |  @ MD @ TROY | MD(away) | 56% | 43% | +13% | +120 | W | +0.44 |
| Mar 8 | @ WRST @ TENN | TENN(home) | 87% | 78% | +9% | -490 | L↓ | −0.87 |
| Mar 8 |  @ VT @ GT | GT(home) | 53% | 41% | +12% | +128 | L↓ | −0.53 |
| Mar 8 |  @ UNCW @ JAX | JAX(home) | 54% | 39% | +15% | +139 | L↓ | −0.54 |
| Mar 8 |  @ UCSD @ CIN | UCSD(away) | 27% | 14% | +14% | +577 | L | −0.27 |
| Mar 8 |  @WASH @ IU | WASH(away) | 35% | 21% | +15% | +350 | W↑ | +0.65 |
| Mar 8 |  @ MSU @ NEB | NEB(home) | 83% | 68% | +15% | -270 | W | +0.17 |
| Mar 7 | @LMU @ ASU | LMU(away) | 32% | 13% | +18% | +618 | L | −0.32 |
| Mar 7 | @UNCW @ JAX | JAX(home) | 51% | 17% | +34% | +465 | L↓ | −0.51 |
| Mar 7 | @VT @ GT | VT(away) | 34% | 26% | +8% | +289 | L | −0.34 |
| Mar 7 | @ECU @ CCU | CCU(home) | 68% | 52% | +16% | -126 | W | +0.32 |
| Mar 7 | @ORE @ PUR | ORE(away) | 50% | 41% | +9% | +126 | L↓ | −0.50 |
| Mar 7 | @UCLA @ OSU | OSU(home) | 44% | 13% | +31% | +614 | L | −0.44 |
| Mar 7 | @MSU @ NEB | NEB(home) | 83% | 71% | +12% | -315 | W | +0.17 |
| Mar 7 | @WRST @ TENN | TENN(home) | 90% | 80% | +10% | -587 | W | +0.10 |
| Mar 7 | @LT @ S ALA | S ALA(home) | 68% | 45% | +23% | +108 | L↓ | −0.68 |
| Mar 7 | @ BC @ MIA | BC(away) | 28% | 22% | +6% | +336 | L | −0.28 |
| Mar 7 | @XU @ ORST | ORST(home) | 90% | 79% | +11% | -519 | W | +0.10 |
| Mar 7 | @FRES @ ARIZ | ARIZ(home) | 78% | 71% | +7% | -312 | W | +0.22 |
| Mar 6 | @LBSU @ UCSB | LBSU(away) | 23% | 16% | +8% | +493 | L | −0.23 |
| Mar 6 |  @ MTSU @ UAB | MTSU(away) | 52% | 11% | +41% | +789 | L↓ | −0.52 |
| Mar 6 | @ORE @ PUR | PUR(home) | 35% | 27% | +8% | +248 | L | −0.35 |
| Mar 6 | @WASH @ IU | WASH(away) | 51% | 30% | +21% | +218 | L↓ | −0.51 |
| Mar 6 | @UCLA @ OSU | OSU(home) | 32% | 15% | +17% | +543 | L | −0.32 |
| Mar 6 | @VT @ GT | VT(away) | 47% | 22% | +26% | +337 | L | −0.47 |
| Mar 6 | @ECU @ CCU | CCU(home) | 64% | 52% | +12% | -127 | W | +0.36 |
| Mar 6 | @MD @ TROY | MD(away) | 48% | 42% | +6% | +125 | L | −0.48 |
| Mar 6 | @ND @ DUKE | DUKE(home) | 60% | 41% | +18% | +129 | L↓ | −0.60 |
| Mar 6 |  @UL @ DBU | DBU(home) | 51% | 45% | +6% | +109 | L↓ | −0.51 |
| Mar 6 | @LMU @ ASU | LMU(away) | 32% | 13% | +19% | +635 | L | −0.32 |
| Mar 6 | @LT @ S ALA | S ALA(home) | 54% | 47% | +7% | +22 | W | +0.46 |
| Mar 6 |  @ GCU @ UTAH | GCU(away) | 53% | 40% | +12% | +132 | L↓ | −0.53 |
| Mar 6 |  @STAN @ WAKE | STAN(away) | 31% | 25% | +5% | +269 | L | −0.31 |
| Mar 6 | @BC @ MIA | BC(away) | 37% | 21% | +17% | +354 | W↑ | +0.63 |
| Mar 5 |  @ SCU @ OU | SCU(away) | 35% | 16% | +19% | +485 | L | −0.35 |
| Mar 5 |  @ APSU @ UTU | UTU(home) | 51% | 35% | +16% | +167 | W | +0.49 |
| Mar 5 |  @ UIC @ MIZZ | UIC(away) | 38% | 26% | +12% | +268 | L | −0.38 |
| Mar 5 |  @ MICH @ PEPP | PEPP(home) | 31% | 16% | +15% | +495 | L | −0.31 |
| Mar 5 | @UCSD @ CIN | UCSD(away) | 45% | 33% | +12% | +188 | L | −0.45 |
| Mar 4 | @ TROY @ VAN | VAN(home) | 82% | 76% | +6% | -435 | W | +0.18 |
| Mar 4 |  @BEL @ MTSU | MTSU(home) | 77% | 65% | +12% | -224 | L↓ | −0.77 |
| Mar 4 | @ WAKE @ APP | APP(home) | 44% | 24% | +20% | +301 | L | −0.44 |
| Mar 4 |  @BCU @ MIA | MIA(home) | 87% | 82% | +5% | -682 | W | +0.13 |
| Mar 4 |  @ FGCU @ UCF | UCF(home) | 74% | 64% | +9% | -219 | W | +0.26 |
| Mar 4 |  @ARST @ LT | LT(home) | 74% | 57% | +17% | -155 | L↓ | −0.74 |
| Mar 4 |  @ RICE @ LAM | LAM(home) | 82% | 61% | +21% | -186 | L↓ | −0.82 |
| Mar 4 |  @ SELA @ ULM | ULM(home) | 65% | 38% | +27% | +150 | L↓ | −0.65 |
| Mar 4 |  @ ODU @ VCU | VCU(home) | 69% | 54% | +16% | -135 | L↓ | −0.69 |
| Mar 4 |  @ CHSO @ SC | SC(home) | 84% | 65% | +19% | -227 | W | +0.16 |
| Mar 4 | @ECU @ UNCW | UNCW(home) | 59% | 42% | +17% | +123 | L↓ | −0.59 |
| Mar 4 |  @ MERC @ FSU | FSU(home) | 89% | 71% | +18% | -308 | W | +0.11 |
| Mar 4 |  @ MILW @ MINN | MINN(home) | 89% | 78% | +11% | -507 | W | +0.11 |
| Mar 4 |  @LSU @ UL | UL(home) | 50% | 25% | +25% | +272 | W | +0.50 |