Bet History
How accurate is the model on games where it saw ≥5% edge?
Expected vs Actual Wins
23/ 27.0 exp
−4.0 vs model expectation
23W–30L across 53 graded bets
Model vs Market (Brier Score)
0.255model
Market: 0.255(lower = better)
Model and market roughly equal
Graded Bets
53
games with ≥5% model edge
Avg model prob: 51% for best side
By Edge Tier
— Exp = model's expected wins for this tier| Tier | Bets | Exp Wins | Actual | vs Expected | Model Brier | Mkt Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5–10% | 21 | 10.4 | 7 | −3.4 | 0.259 | 0.240 |
| +10–15% | 17 | 8.6 | 10 | +1.4 | 0.228 | 0.265 |
| +15%+ | 15 | 8.1 | 6 | −2.1 | 0.278 | 0.265 |
Recent Bets
W↑ = won when model said <50% · L↓ = lost when model said ≥50%
| Date | Matchup | Side | Model% | Market% | Edge | Line | Result | vs Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24 |  @ UK @ SC | SC(home) | 47% | 42% | +6% | +124 | W↑ | +0.53 |
| Apr 24 |  @ UCF @ UTAH | UTAH(home) | 50% | 45% | +6% | +110 | L↓ | −0.50 |
| Apr 24 |  @ UTSA @ TULN | TULN(home) | 46% | 36% | +10% | +158 | L | −0.46 |
| Apr 24 |  @ CSUF @ UCSB | CSUF(away) | 26% | 21% | +5% | +354 | L | −0.26 |
| Apr 24 |  @ USM @ S ALA | S ALA(home) | 46% | 39% | +7% | +140 | L | −0.46 |
| Apr 24 |  @ KU @ KSU | KU(away) | 58% | 44% | +14% | +114 | W | +0.42 |
| Apr 24 |  @ NEB @ ILL | ILL(home) | 36% | 30% | +7% | +217 | W↑ | +0.64 |
| Apr 24 |  @ UL @ ARST | UL(away) | 42% | 35% | +7% | +167 | W↑ | +0.58 |
| Apr 24 |  @ UNC @ DUKE | DUKE(home) | 35% | 22% | +13% | +318 | W↑ | +0.65 |
| Apr 24 |  @ MD @ MSU | MSU(home) | 54% | 48% | +6% | -106 | L↓ | −0.54 |
| Apr 24 |  @ NCST @ VT | VT(home) | 49% | 36% | +13% | +164 | W↑ | +0.51 |
| Apr 24 |  @ CLEM @ LOU | LOU(home) | 52% | 47% | +5% | +11 | W | +0.48 |
| Apr 24 |  @ ALA @ TENN | ALA(away) | 45% | 10% | +35% | +806 | L | −0.45 |
| Apr 24 |  @ WASH @ MICH | MICH(home) | 69% | 15% | +54% | +534 | W | +0.31 |
| Apr 24 |  @ TEX @ VAN | VAN(home) | 51% | 33% | +19% | +189 | L↓ | −0.51 |
| Apr 24 |  @ PUR @ USC | PUR(away) | 37% | 24% | +13% | +300 | L | −0.37 |
| Apr 24 |  @ BAY @ ASU | BAY(away) | 36% | 27% | +9% | +243 | L | −0.36 |
| Apr 24 |  @ FSU @ STAN | STAN(home) | 36% | 22% | +15% | +337 | W↑ | +0.64 |
| Apr 23 | @UNC @ DUKE | DUKE(home) | 35% | 20% | +14% | +369 | L | −0.34 |
| Apr 22 |  @ MIA @ FAU | FAU(home) | 40% | 24% | +17% | +297 | L | −0.40 |
| Apr 21 |  @ SDSU @ CSUN | CSUN(home) | 65% | 51% | +14% | -120 | L↓ | −0.65 |
| Apr 21 | @ VT @ VCU | VT(away) | 65% | 54% | +12% | -135 | W | +0.35 |
| Apr 21 |  @ CAM @ CLT | CAM(away) | 58% | 48% | +10% | -55 | W | +0.42 |
| Apr 21 |  @HP @ UNC | UNC(home) | 87% | 77% | +10% | -458 | W | +0.13 |
| Apr 21 |  @ SJU @ RUTG | SJU(away) | 43% | 36% | +7% | +160 | W↑ | +0.57 |
| Apr 21 |  @SCUP @ CLEM | CLEM(home) | 84% | 71% | +13% | -310 | W | +0.16 |
| Apr 21 |  @ ULM @ NWST | ULM(away) | 52% | 44% | +7% | +113 | W | +0.48 |
| Apr 21 |  @ CIN @ WRST | WRST(home) | 33% | 18% | +15% | +441 | W↑ | +0.67 |
| Apr 21 | @ MICH @ M-OH | MICH(away) | 74% | 50% | +24% | -117 | L↓ | −0.74 |
| Apr 21 |  @ ETSU @ APP | APP(home) | 67% | 45% | +22% | +109 | W | +0.33 |
| Apr 21 |  @ USF @ STET | STET(home) | 41% | 35% | +5% | +168 | L | −0.41 |
| Apr 21 |  @ HAW @ UCLA | HAW(away) | 20% | 15% | +5% | +541 | L | −0.20 |
| Apr 20 |  @ UCD @ FRES | FRES(home) | 55% | 49% | +6% | -77 | L↓ | −0.55 |
| Apr 19 | @ KSU @ ARIZ | ARIZ(home) | 48% | 22% | +26% | +327 | W↑ | +0.52 |
| Apr 19 | @ALA @ TEX | TEX(home) | 65% | 38% | +26% | +149 | L↓ | −0.65 |
| Apr 19 |  @ TA&M @ LSU | LSU(home) | 42% | 9% | +33% | +1197 | L | −0.42 |
| Apr 19 |  @ORE @ ILL | ILL(home) | 44% | 32% | +11% | +189 | L | −0.44 |
| Apr 19 | @USC @ NEB | NEB(home) | 62% | 50% | +12% | — | W | +0.38 |
| Apr 19 |  @MISS @ TENN | MISS(away) | 55% | 6% | +50% | +1600 | L↓ | −0.55 |
| Apr 19 |  @TTU @ UTAH | UTAH(home) | 62% | 42% | +20% | +125 | W | +0.38 |
| Apr 19 | @MIA @ STAN | STAN(home) | 42% | 25% | +17% | +278 | W↑ | +0.58 |
| Apr 19 | @ LOU @ CAL | CAL(home) | 56% | 40% | +16% | +138 | L↓ | −0.56 |
| Apr 19 | @ARST @ ULM | ULM(home) | 45% | 31% | +13% | +198 | L | −0.45 |
| Apr 19 | @ UCSB @ UCI | UCI(home) | 42% | 32% | +10% | +191 | L | −0.42 |
| Apr 19 |  @ UCRV @ LBSU | UCRV(away) | 42% | 31% | +11% | +199 | W↑ | +0.58 |
| Apr 19 | @ RUTG @ PSU | PSU(home) | 46% | 32% | +14% | +193 | W↑ | +0.54 |
| Apr 19 |  @ LIB @ DBU | DBU(home) | 50% | 45% | +5% | +111 | L | −0.50 |
| Apr 19 | @ MD @ IOWA | IOWA(home) | 65% | 57% | +7% | -157 | L↓ | −0.65 |
| Apr 19 |  @ WICH @ ECU | ECU(home) | 76% | 66% | +10% | -238 | L↓ | −0.76 |
| Apr 19 |  @UAB @ USF | UAB(away) | 50% | 36% | +13% | +159 | L | −0.49 |
| Apr 19 | @CLT @ UTSA | UTSA(home) | 73% | 66% | +7% | -238 | L↓ | −0.73 |
| Apr 19 |  @GT @ UNC | UNC(home) | 60% | 12% | +48% | +891 | L↓ | −0.60 |
| Apr 19 | @ HAW @ CSUB | CSUB(home) | 47% | 34% | +13% | +175 | L | −0.47 |