Model Performance

2022 Season · 2,980 graded predictions

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 All

In-sample data: All predictions for this season were generated after games completed (historical backfill), so metrics reflect in-sample fit rather than true out-of-sample accuracy. Metrics will become trustworthy as the current season progresses and daily ETL generates pre-game predictions.

66%

Overall Accuracy

58%

Last 50 Games

0.2321

Brier Score (↓ better)

0.7478

Log Loss (↓ better)

0.6598

AUC (↑ better)

2,980

Predictions Graded

Calibration

When the model says X%, does the favored team win X% of the time? The vertical bar shows the predicted probability; the filled bar shows actual.

50–55%315 games52% actual(-1pp)

55–60%340 games58% actual(+1pp)

60–65%324 games60% actual(-3pp)

65–70%429 games60% actual(-7pp)

70–75%345 games69% actual(-3pp)

75–80%271 games71% actual(-6pp)

80–100%956 games75% actual(-16pp)

Actual win rate Predicted

Score Projection Accuracy

How close were the Monte Carlo score projections to actual results?

4.9

Avg margin error (runs)

+0.8

Margin bias (under-projects)

50%

Own-line cover rate

Within 2 runs of projected margin28%

Within 5 runs of projected margin62%

Based on 2980 games with score projections.

D1 Diamond Top 25 — 2026 Season

Composite ranking of all D1 teams with ≥5 games played.

#	Team	Record	Elo	wOBA	FIP	Run Diff	Score
1	UCLAUCLA Bruins	36–3	1841	0.426	3.61	+5.4	91
2	GTGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets	32–7	1801	0.482	4.27	+6.2	90
3	TEXTexas Longhorns	30–8	1785	0.424	2.91	+4.4	86
4	UNCNorth Carolina Tar Heels	34–7	1844	0.408	3.96	+4.5	86
5	UGAGeorgia Bulldogs	32–9	1780	0.465	4.07	+4.8	84
6	TA&MTexas A&M Aggies	31–7	1793	0.454	4.74	+5.3	84
7	MSSTMississippi State Bulldogs	30–10	1751	0.428	3.39	+4.8	82
8	ORSTOregon State Beavers	30–8	1756	0.383	2.97	+3.1	80
9	AUBAuburn Tigers	27–12	1746	0.386	3.17	+2.9	77
10	MISSOle Miss Rebels	29–12	1761	0.387	3.47	+2.6	77
11	FSUFlorida State Seminoles	28–11	1756	0.392	3.60	+3.1	76
12	NEBNebraska Cornhuskers	31–9	1749	0.407	4.19	+3.0	76
13	MIAMiami Hurricanes	29–11	1703	0.423	4.06	+4.3	75
14	JVSTJacksonville State Gamecocks	33–8	1684	0.399	3.63	+3.7	75
15	FLAFlorida Gators	28–13	1725	0.371	3.09	+2.2	74
16	WVUWest Virginia Mountaineers	27–9	1711	0.404	3.98	+3.8	74
17	BCBoston College Eagles	32–11	1740	0.381	4.06	+3.0	74
18	OREOregon Ducks	28–11	1687	0.425	4.14	+3.3	73
19	KUKansas Jayhawks	29–11	1741	0.401	4.46	+1.7	73
20	OUOklahoma Sooners	27–12	1730	0.388	4.10	+2.5	72
21	ALAAlabama Crimson Tide	28–13	1734	0.381	3.86	+2.4	72
22	ASUArizona State Sun Devils	28–13	1661	0.437	4.14	+2.9	72
23	USMSouthern Miss Golden Eagles	28–12	1685	0.378	3.34	+1.8	71
24	CCUCoastal Carolina Chanticleers	28–11	1732	0.394	4.80	+1.9	70
25	WAKEWake Forest Demon Deacons	27–14	1690	0.418	4.45	+3.4	70

Minimum 5 games played. wOBA/FIP from FanGraphs.

By Confidence Tier

Accuracy when the model is highly confident in its pick.

Confidence	Games	Accuracy
≥ 60%	2325	69%
≥ 65%	2001	70%
≥ 70%	1572	73%
≥ 75%	1227	74%

Top Teams by Elo

Rolling Elo rating (1500 = average). Updated after every game result.

Rank	Team	Games	Elo
1	North Carolina Tar Heels	290	1844
2	UCLA Bruins	274	1841
3	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	274	1801
4	Texas A&M Aggies	291	1793
5	Texas Longhorns	289	1785
6	Georgia Bulldogs	276	1780
7	Ole Miss Rebels	280	1761
8	Florida State Seminoles	276	1756
9	Oregon State Beavers	291	1756
10	Mississippi State Bulldogs	271	1751

How to Read This

Overall Accuracy — % of games where the model's favored team won.

Brier Score — measures probability calibration quality. Lower is better.

Log Loss — penalises confident wrong predictions more harshly than Brier score. Lower is better.

AUC — probability that the model ranks a random home win above a random home loss. 0.5 = no skill; 1.0 = perfect.

Calibration chart — a perfectly calibrated model's bar would exactly touch the line in every bucket.

Elo ratings — self-correcting power ratings that update after every game. 1500 is average.