Model Performance

2023 Season · 2,986 graded predictions

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 All

In-sample data: All predictions for this season were generated after games completed (historical backfill), so metrics reflect in-sample fit rather than true out-of-sample accuracy. Metrics will become trustworthy as the current season progresses and daily ETL generates pre-game predictions.

66%

Overall Accuracy

84%

Last 50 Games

0.2638

Brier Score (↓ better)

1.0334

Log Loss (↓ better)

0.6102

AUC (↑ better)

2,986

Predictions Graded

Calibration

When the model says X%, does the favored team win X% of the time? The vertical bar shows the predicted probability; the filled bar shows actual.

50–55%210 games49% actual(-4pp)

55–60%229 games51% actual(-6pp)

60–65%217 games60% actual(-3pp)

65–70%250 games63% actual(-4pp)

70–75%237 games69% actual(-3pp)

75–80%197 games75% actual(-2pp)

80–100%1646 games70% actual(-27pp)

Actual win rate Predicted

Score Projection Accuracy

How close were the Monte Carlo score projections to actual results?

4.7

Avg margin error (runs)

+1.0

Margin bias (under-projects)

58%

Own-line cover rate

Within 2 runs of projected margin29%

Within 5 runs of projected margin62%

Based on 2986 games with score projections.

D1 Diamond Top 25 — 2026 Season

Composite ranking of all D1 teams with ≥5 games played.

#	Team	Record	Elo	wOBA	FIP	Run Diff	Score
1	GTGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets	45–9	1841	0.477	4.71	+6.0	92
2	UCLAUCLA Bruins	48–6	1830	0.421	3.80	+4.5	90
3	UNCNorth Carolina Tar Heels	44–10	1839	0.406	3.97	+4.6	87
4	UGAGeorgia Bulldogs	43–12	1826	0.461	4.44	+4.3	87
5	TEXTexas Longhorns	40–12	1804	0.408	3.30	+3.7	86
6	MSSTMississippi State Bulldogs	39–16	1756	0.417	3.57	+4.0	81
7	ORSTOregon State Beavers	43–12	1737	0.383	3.21	+3.0	80
8	TA&MTexas A&M Aggies	38–14	1765	0.433	4.71	+3.7	80
9	AUBAuburn Tigers	36–18	1771	0.388	3.38	+3.1	79
10	FLAFlorida Gators	37–18	1756	0.373	3.26	+2.4	77
11	FSUFlorida State Seminoles	38–16	1758	0.384	3.58	+2.9	77
12	WVUWest Virginia Mountaineers	37–13	1752	0.400	4.19	+3.2	77
13	USMSouthern Miss Golden Eagles	40–14	1714	0.380	3.23	+2.5	76
14	WAKEWake Forest Demon Deacons	38–18	1732	0.419	4.40	+3.2	75
15	MISSOle Miss Rebels	37–19	1759	0.387	4.01	+2.3	75
16	OREOregon Ducks	38–15	1725	0.406	4.21	+2.5	75
17	CBUCalifornia Baptist Lancers	19–3	1621	0.413	3.69	+3.9	75
18	JVSTJacksonville State Gamecocks	42–13	1679	0.394	3.69	+3.0	74
19	NEBNebraska Cornhuskers	41–14	1739	0.407	4.70	+2.5	74
20	USCUSC Trojans	41–14	1698	0.389	3.73	+3.0	74
21	TENNTennessee Volunteers	37–19	1746	0.390	4.18	+2.4	73
22	CAMCampbell Fighting Camels	39–15	1666	0.415	4.01	+2.9	73
23	KUKansas Jayhawks	39–16	1730	0.400	4.41	+1.8	73
24	ASUArizona State Sun Devils	36–18	1671	0.434	4.46	+2.6	73
25	ARKArkansas Razorbacks	36–19	1750	0.381	4.52	+2.3	72

Minimum 5 games played. wOBA/FIP from FanGraphs.

By Confidence Tier

Accuracy when the model is highly confident in its pick.

Confidence	Games	Accuracy
≥ 60%	2547	69%
≥ 65%	2330	70%
≥ 70%	2080	70%
≥ 75%	1843	71%

Top Teams by Elo

Rolling Elo rating (1500 = average). Updated after every game result.

Rank	Team	Games	Elo
1	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	289	1841
2	North Carolina Tar Heels	303	1839
3	UCLA Bruins	289	1830
4	Georgia Bulldogs	290	1826
5	Texas Longhorns	303	1804
6	Auburn Tigers	291	1771
7	Texas A&M Aggies	305	1765
8	Ole Miss Rebels	295	1759
9	Florida State Seminoles	291	1758
10	Mississippi State Bulldogs	286	1756

How to Read This

Overall Accuracy — % of games where the model's favored team won.

Brier Score — measures probability calibration quality. Lower is better.

Log Loss — penalises confident wrong predictions more harshly than Brier score. Lower is better.

AUC — probability that the model ranks a random home win above a random home loss. 0.5 = no skill; 1.0 = perfect.

Calibration chart — a perfectly calibrated model's bar would exactly touch the line in every bucket.

Elo ratings — self-correcting power ratings that update after every game. 1500 is average.