Model Performance

All Seasons · 15,722 graded predictions

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 All

In-sample data: 12,988 of 15,722 predictions were generated after games completed. Only the 2,734 prospective predictions are reliable for evaluation. Metrics will become trustworthy as the current season progresses and daily ETL generates pre-game predictions.

66%

Overall Accuracy

68%

Last 50 Games

0.2230

Brier Score (↓ better)

0.7109

Log Loss (↓ better)

0.6813

AUC (↑ better)

15,722

Predictions Graded

Calibration

When the model says X%, does the favored team win X% of the time? The vertical bar shows the predicted probability; the filled bar shows actual.

50–55%1830 games51% actual(-3pp)

55–60%2040 games54% actual(-3pp)

60–65%2016 games58% actual(-5pp)

65–70%2136 games65% actual(-2pp)

70–75%1661 games69% actual(-3pp)

75–80%1402 games76% actual(-2pp)

80–100%4637 games78% actual(-13pp)

Actual win rate Predicted

Score Projection Accuracy

How close were the Monte Carlo score projections to actual results?

4.8

Avg margin error (runs)

+0.8

Margin bias (under-projects)

55%

Own-line cover rate

Within 2 runs of projected margin28%

Within 5 runs of projected margin61%

Based on 15722 games with score projections.

D1 Diamond Top 25 — 2026 Season

Composite ranking of all D1 teams with ≥5 games played.

#	Team	Record	Elo	wOBA	FIP	Run Diff	Score
1	UCLAUCLA Bruins	38–3	1847	0.426	3.69	+5.3	91
2	GTGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets	34–7	1820	0.480	4.32	+6.1	91
3	TEXTexas Longhorns	31–8	1794	0.418	2.89	+4.5	87
4	UNCNorth Carolina Tar Heels	36–8	1832	0.405	3.92	+4.4	85
5	MSSTMississippi State Bulldogs	32–10	1764	0.421	3.24	+4.7	83
6	UGAGeorgia Bulldogs	32–10	1769	0.463	4.19	+4.5	83
7	TA&MTexas A&M Aggies	31–8	1778	0.449	4.72	+4.9	83
8	AUBAuburn Tigers	29–12	1761	0.391	3.16	+3.1	79
9	ORSTOregon State Beavers	31–9	1747	0.383	3.03	+3.1	79
10	MISSOle Miss Rebels	30–12	1766	0.392	3.63	+3.0	78
11	FSUFlorida State Seminoles	29–12	1744	0.391	3.52	+3.0	76
12	OREOregon Ducks	30–11	1706	0.424	4.17	+3.2	75
13	KUKansas Jayhawks	31–11	1761	0.403	4.41	+2.0	75
14	FLAFlorida Gators	29–14	1722	0.369	3.08	+2.2	73
15	MIAMiami Hurricanes	30–12	1693	0.418	4.14	+3.9	73
16	JVSTJacksonville State Gamecocks	34–9	1673	0.397	3.67	+3.4	73
17	NEBNebraska Cornhuskers	31–11	1719	0.411	4.34	+2.6	73
18	TENNTennessee Volunteers	29–15	1732	0.383	3.96	+2.5	72
19	USMSouthern Miss Golden Eagles	30–12	1699	0.381	3.30	+1.7	72
20	ARKArkansas Razorbacks	29–15	1742	0.379	4.29	+2.5	71
21	WAKEWake Forest Demon Deacons	28–15	1687	0.420	4.36	+3.5	71
22	OUOklahoma Sooners	28–13	1723	0.390	4.15	+2.3	71
23	WVUWest Virginia Mountaineers	27–10	1695	0.401	4.30	+3.1	71
24	ASUArizona State Sun Devils	29–14	1652	0.436	4.17	+3.0	71
25	UCSBUC Santa Barbara Gauchos	27–12	1685	0.372	3.41	+2.4	70

Minimum 5 games played. wOBA/FIP from FanGraphs.

By Confidence Tier

Accuracy when the model is highly confident in its pick.

Confidence	Games	Accuracy
≥ 60%	11852	71%
≥ 65%	9836	73%
≥ 70%	7700	76%
≥ 75%	6039	77%

Top Teams by Elo

Rolling Elo rating (1500 = average). Updated after every game result.

Rank	Team	Games	Elo
1	UCLA Bruins	276	1847
2	North Carolina Tar Heels	293	1832
3	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	276	1820
4	Texas Longhorns	290	1794
5	Texas A&M Aggies	292	1778
6	Georgia Bulldogs	277	1769
7	Ole Miss Rebels	281	1766
8	Mississippi State Bulldogs	273	1764
9	Auburn Tigers	278	1761
10	Kansas Jayhawks	267	1761

How to Read This

Overall Accuracy — % of games where the model's favored team won.

Brier Score — measures probability calibration quality. Lower is better.

Log Loss — penalises confident wrong predictions more harshly than Brier score. Lower is better.

AUC — probability that the model ranks a random home win above a random home loss. 0.5 = no skill; 1.0 = perfect.

Calibration chart — a perfectly calibrated model's bar would exactly touch the line in every bucket.

Elo ratings — self-correcting power ratings that update after every game. 1500 is average.