Model Performance

2024 Season · 3,078 graded predictions

2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 All

In-sample data: All predictions for this season were generated after games completed (historical backfill), so metrics reflect in-sample fit rather than true out-of-sample accuracy. Metrics will become trustworthy as the current season progresses and daily ETL generates pre-game predictions.

66%

Overall Accuracy

68%

Last 50 Games

0.2060

Brier Score (↓ better)

0.5947

Log Loss (↓ better)

0.7284

AUC (↑ better)

3,078

Predictions Graded

Calibration

When the model says X%, does the favored team win X% of the time? The vertical bar shows the predicted probability; the filled bar shows actual.

50–55%381 games51% actual(-2pp)

55–60%418 games51% actual(-7pp)

60–65%445 games55% actual(-8pp)

65–70%450 games64% actual(-4pp)

70–75%355 games70% actual(-2pp)

75–80%339 games73% actual(-4pp)

80–100%690 games87% actual

Actual win rate Predicted

Score Projection Accuracy

How close were the Monte Carlo score projections to actual results?

4.7

Avg margin error (runs)

+1.0

Margin bias (under-projects)

56%

Own-line cover rate

Within 2 runs of projected margin28%

Within 5 runs of projected margin62%

Based on 3078 games with score projections.

D1 Diamond Top 25 — 2026 Season

Composite ranking of all D1 teams with ≥5 games played.

#	Team	Record	Elo	wOBA	FIP	Run Diff	Score
1	GTGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets	45–9	1841	0.477	4.59	+6.0	92
2	UCLAUCLA Bruins	48–6	1830	0.417	3.85	+4.5	89
3	UNCNorth Carolina Tar Heels	44–10	1839	0.409	3.97	+4.6	87
4	UGAGeorgia Bulldogs	43–12	1826	0.458	4.39	+4.3	87
5	TEXTexas Longhorns	40–12	1804	0.410	3.26	+3.7	86
6	MSSTMississippi State Bulldogs	39–16	1756	0.418	3.69	+4.0	81
7	ORSTOregon State Beavers	43–12	1737	0.383	3.20	+3.0	80
8	TA&MTexas A&M Aggies	38–14	1765	0.434	4.87	+3.7	79
9	AUBAuburn Tigers	36–18	1771	0.384	3.48	+3.1	78
10	FSUFlorida State Seminoles	38–16	1758	0.387	3.53	+2.9	78
11	FLAFlorida Gators	37–18	1756	0.375	3.26	+2.4	77
12	USMSouthern Miss Golden Eagles	40–14	1714	0.385	3.17	+2.5	77
13	MISSOle Miss Rebels	37–19	1759	0.386	3.95	+2.3	76
14	WVUWest Virginia Mountaineers	37–13	1752	0.394	4.16	+3.2	76
15	WAKEWake Forest Demon Deacons	38–18	1732	0.416	4.35	+3.2	75
16	OREOregon Ducks	38–15	1725	0.401	4.14	+2.5	75
17	CBUCalifornia Baptist Lancers	19–3	1621	0.411	3.72	+3.9	75
18	JVSTJacksonville State Gamecocks	42–13	1679	0.395	3.85	+3.0	74
19	KUKansas Jayhawks	39–16	1730	0.401	4.40	+1.8	74
20	NEBNebraska Cornhuskers	41–14	1739	0.406	4.66	+2.5	74
21	USCUSC Trojans	41–14	1698	0.383	3.75	+3.0	74
22	TENNTennessee Volunteers	37–19	1746	0.389	4.22	+2.4	73
23	CAMCampbell Fighting Camels	39–15	1666	0.417	4.04	+2.9	73
24	ARKArkansas Razorbacks	36–19	1750	0.382	4.48	+2.3	72
25	ALAAlabama Crimson Tide	37–18	1754	0.364	4.15	+1.6	72

Minimum 5 games played. wOBA/FIP from FanGraphs.

By Confidence Tier

Accuracy when the model is highly confident in its pick.

Confidence	Games	Accuracy
≥ 60%	2279	72%
≥ 65%	1834	76%
≥ 70%	1384	80%
≥ 75%	1029	83%

Top Teams by Elo

Rolling Elo rating (1500 = average). Updated after every game result.

Rank	Team	Games	Elo
1	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	289	1841
2	North Carolina Tar Heels	303	1839
3	UCLA Bruins	289	1830
4	Georgia Bulldogs	290	1826
5	Texas Longhorns	303	1804
6	Auburn Tigers	291	1771
7	Texas A&M Aggies	305	1765
8	Ole Miss Rebels	295	1759
9	Florida State Seminoles	291	1758
10	Mississippi State Bulldogs	286	1756

How to Read This

Overall Accuracy — % of games where the model's favored team won.

Brier Score — measures probability calibration quality. Lower is better.

Log Loss — penalises confident wrong predictions more harshly than Brier score. Lower is better.

AUC — probability that the model ranks a random home win above a random home loss. 0.5 = no skill; 1.0 = perfect.

Calibration chart — a perfectly calibrated model's bar would exactly touch the line in every bucket.

Elo ratings — self-correcting power ratings that update after every game. 1500 is average.